Succession
This is a forecast of the succession of the presidents of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. See the original post for context.
President Russell M. Nelson died at age 101 on September 27, 2025. Dallin H. Oaks will succeed him as president.
Age is a driver of higher probabilities of being president in any given year. For example, David A. Bednar was relatively young when he was called in his early fifties, while most are called in their sixties. He is also over a decade younger than the next apostle senior to him.
Calculations and graphics done in R version 4.3.3, with these packages:
Qiu Y (2024). showtext: Using Fonts More Easily in R Graphs. R package version 0.9-7. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=showtext
Wickham H, et al. (2019). Welcome to the tidyverse. Journal of Open Source Software, 4 (43), 1686. https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.01686
Wilke C, Wiernik B (2022). ggtext: Improved Text Rendering Support for 'ggplot2'. R package version 0.1.2. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ggtext
Yu G (2024). shadowtext: Shadow Text Grob and Layer. R package version 0.1.3. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=shadowtext
Generative AIs like ChatGPT and Claude were used in parts of coding and the cover art.
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